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Market Live: ASX set to plunge

Macquarie Group has racheted up its 2018 earnings guidance, noting profit would be up about 10 per cent on the previous year's record.

Conditions in the three months ended December 31 "were satisfactory," Macquarie - which has a March 31 balance date - said in an ASX statement on Tuesday. That came ahead of the Sydney-based company's annual operational briefing that will provide insights into Macquarie's view on infrastructure, energy and technology.

Macquarie's prior earnings guidance pointed to 2018 results that would be "slightly up" on last year's record result of $2.2 billion.

The company is benefiting from a stronger deal environment and a colder winter in the northern hemisphere.

Chief executive Nicholas Moore will address analysts and fund managers at the briefing on Tuesday morning.

Joyce Moullakis reports

The overnight drop in the US markets was "pretty amazing" said Matthew Sherwood at Perpetual Investments.

"In the last few weeks investors have been given a potent reminder of the power of the bond market," he said.

The plunge in the US stockmarket on Monday was likely due to algorithms kicking in and "everyone screaming for parachutes at the same time" he said.

Still, the moves in the US markets should serve as a reminder to investors of what can happen when a decade of central bank stimulus is withdrawn and highlight the need to find sources of diversification such as safe-haven currencies, Mr Sherwood said.

Here's a bit more detail on that overnight market sell off in the US:

The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average each were hammered on Monday, weighed down by energy, health-care and financial stocks.

"You're going to have these blowoffs that are going to be a little more common than they were last year," Tom Plumb, president of Madison, Wisconsin-based SVA Plumb Wealth Management, said by phone. The firm manages $US2.7 billion. "And I still think they'll be looked at as opportunities to step in."

Equity investors are looking for confirmation that recent declines represent the healthy correction many had expected after the stellar start to the year. The downward move was sparked by US wage data on Friday that pointed to quickening inflation, which would lead to higher rates and, in turn, rising borrowing costs for companies.

"Clearly, we are concerned about any setbacks on the stock market," White House spokeswoman Mercedes Schlapp said on Fox Business News. "At the same time, we do believe the economic fundamentals are strong. You understand how the stock market works, it has cycles and trends. We are still in a bull market."

LPL on the return of volatility: "The S&P 500 fell 3.8 per cent for the week, for the worst weekly decline since early 2016. Volatility continues to rule so far in 2018, as the S&P 500 has now gained or lost at least 2 per cent for the week 3 of the 5 weeks so far this year. To put this into perspective, not a single week last year changed 2 per cent up or down. The 2.1 per cent drop on Friday was the single largest drop for the S&P 500 since September 9, 2016 when it fell 2.5 per cent."

US services sector activity raced to a near 12-1/2-year high in January, buoyed by robust growth in new orders, the latest sign of strong momentum in the economy at the start of the year. The ISM said its non-manufacturing activity index jumped 3.9 points to 59.9, the highest reading since August 2005.

Read the full premarket report from TImothy Moore

All the overnight market action in numbers:

  • SPI futures down 139 points or 2.3% to 5822
  • AUD -0.5% to 78.82 US cents
  • On Wall St: Dow -4.6%, S&P 500 -4.1%, Nasdaq -3.8%
  • In New York, BHP -2.8%, Rio -1.9%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.3%, FTSE -1.5%, CAC -1.5%, DAX -0.8%
  • Spot gold +0.1% to $US1334.45 an ounce
  • Brent crude -1.4% to $US67.63 a barrel
  • US oil -2.1% to $US64.05 a barrel
  • Iron ore +1.8% to $75.70 a tonne
  • Dalian iron ore +1.2% to 525.5 yuan
  • LME aluminium +0.1% to $US2211 a tonne
  • LME copper +1.8% to $US7169 a tonne
  • 10-year bond yield: US 2.70%, Germany 0.73%, Australia 2.93%

On the economic agenda today: 

  • Local data: Trade balance December, Retail sales December, RBA cash rate decision
  • Overseas data: German factory orders December; US Trade balance December

Stocks to watch: 

  • NextDC Downgraded to Hold at Canaccord
  • Pact Group Upgraded to Buy at Morningstar
  • Sandfire Downgraded to Neutral at Hartleys
  • SWM AU: Seven West Upgraded to Buy at Morningstar

ASX futures are down 139 points, or 2.3 per cent, foreshadowing a sharp drop when markets open at 10am. The Australian dollar traded at US78.82¢.

Any drop would come hard on the heels of the ASX's worst one-day performance in seven months on Monday, when US inflation fears roiled global markets. 

Fresh losses for the ASX would follow a day of heavy selling in the US when the Dow fell 4.6 per cent. the broad S&P 500 shed 4.1 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 3.8 per cent by the close. 

Traders blamed the calling in of margin loans and automated computers for exacerbating the abrupt selling and the market shedding more than 1600 points at the lows of the day. 

John Kehoe reports

Good morning and welcome to the Markets Live blog for Tuesday.

Your editor today is Sarah Turner.

This blog is not intended as investment advice.

Fairfax Media with wires.

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